Final Validation Report: Performative Prediction

Updated: 2026-09-06

1. Human Verdict

The population convergence, stability, comparison, and counterexample results are proved on the domains summarized below. The finite-sample RERM and REGD results prove an all-round neighborhood guarantee under their stated inputs.

Formalization gap: Theorems 3.5 and 3.8 assume A1, A2, Wasserstein sensitivity, and analytic regularity over the ambient parameter space while stating their conclusions on the source domain. Proposition 4.1 assumes global expected-risk continuity, and Corollary 5.1 takes the parameter domain to be the entire ambient space. Necessity of these stronger current-proof conditions is unresolved. See the comparisons for Theorems 3.5 and 3.8, Proposition 4.1, and Corollary 5.1.

Formalization gap: Theorem 3.10 is proved for data dimension greater than two with uniform moments, global regularity, and explicit numerical conditions; the printed all-dimension sample budget and logarithmic burn-in bound remain unproved. Details.

2. Closeout Status

All eleven selected results have completed independent source review and strict closeout on the domains described below. The closure receipt identifies the accepted evidence. Human review annotations remain separate.

3. Source and Scope

Juan C. Perdomo, Tijana Zrnic, Celestine Mendler-Dünner, and Moritz Hardt, Performative Prediction, ICML 2020 / PMLR 119. The official paper and supplement are the primary source. The selected results are Theorems 3.5, 3.8 and 3.10, Proposition 3.6(a–c), Propositions 4.1–4.2, Theorem 4.3 and Corollary 5.1.

4. Researcher Summary of Checked Results

Result Comparison with source
Theorem 3.5 Formalization gap: A1, A2, Wasserstein sensitivity, expected-loss/gradient integrability, measurability and differentiation hold for every ambient parameter; the conclusion remains on Θ\Theta. Necessity is unresolved. Conditions.
Proposition 3.6(a) Exact.
Proposition 3.6(b) Exact.
Proposition 3.6(c) Source clarification: 0<γβ0<\gamma\leq\beta is required by the regularity constants; the counterexample covers ϵγ/β\epsilon\geq\gamma/\beta. Compatibility.
Theorem 3.8 Formalization gap: A1, A2, Wasserstein sensitivity, expected-loss/gradient integrability, measurability and differentiation hold for every ambient parameter; the conclusion remains on Θ\Theta. Necessity is unresolved. Conditions.
Theorem 3.10, RERM Formalization gap: all-round probability guarantee for dimension > 2, with uniform moments, global regularity, data-Lipschitz loss and numerical slack (necessity unresolved); printed sample/burn-in bounds remain unproved. Conditions.
Theorem 3.10, empirical gradient descent Formalization gap: all-round guarantee for dimension > 2, with uniform moments, global regularity and numerical slack (necessity unresolved); printed sample/burn-in bounds remain unproved. Conditions.
Proposition 4.1 Formalization gap: expected-loss integrability and joint continuity of expected decoupled risk hold on the full ambient parameter product; stability remains domain-relative. Necessity of the global scope is unresolved. Condition.
Proposition 4.2 Exact claim; witness domain clarified: both Bernoulli endpoint bounds are imposed. Valid example.
Theorem 4.3 Exact.
Corollary 5.1 Formalization gap: whole-space RRM and optimum assumptions; the strategic-classification Stackelberg interpretation is not formalized. Conditions.

5. Remaining Boundaries and Gaps

Theorems 3.5 and 3.8 retain ambient-global regularity while proving domain-level conclusions; Proposition 4.1 retains global expected-risk continuity; and Corollary 5.1 is a whole-space result. The exact differences are in the Theorems 3.5 and 3.8, Proposition 4.1, and Corollary 5.1 memo entries. Their necessity under the source hypotheses is unresolved.

Theorem 3.10 proves the all-round probability guarantee with an explicit sufficient batch schedule for data dimension greater than two. The printed all-dimension sample-count and logarithmic burn-in bounds remain unproved. The current proof uses a common moment bound across adaptive histories and global regularity and numerical conditions; their necessity under the full source hypotheses is unresolved. The memo gives the exact differences.

6. Additional Assumptions Beyond Paper

The population comparison states the ambient-global regularity and analytic premises for Theorems 3.5 and 3.8, and the Corollary 5.1 comparison states its whole-space domain. The stable-point existence argument uses expected-loss integrability and joint continuity of expected risk over the full ambient parameter product for Proposition 4.1. Necessity of these exact premises has not been established. The finite-sample conditions are in Section 5. Counterexample parameter choices in the memo are constructions, not population-model assumptions.

7. Proof-Strategy Deviations

Proposition 3.6(b) uses an explicit hinge penalty and interval to obtain the stated two-cycle; the construction retains the source assumptions and conclusion.

8. Proof Structure Worth Reusing

Population contraction and sampling perturbation can be analyzed separately: a one-step perturbation smaller than the contraction’s slack preserves a neighborhood of the stable point. The memo states the required inequalities.

9. Generalizations, Conjectures, and Extensions

The remaining source-coverage work is identified in Section 5.

10. Source Clarifications and Exact Readings

The memo gives the compatible-constant correction, explicit cycling witnesses, and Bernoulli endpoint correction. Theorem 3.10’s substantive formalization boundary belongs to Section 5, and population analytic premises to Section 6.

11. Paper Issues or Caveats

The material qualifications are stated in Section 5 and Section 6, with exact comparisons linked from the result table.

12. Detailed Formalization Evidence

PaperInterface.lean exposes the performative model, population contraction and stability statements, explicit counterexamples, finite/measure bridges, and eleven selected result targets. ProofInterface.lean contains their proof endpoints, including Theorem 3.10 trajectory results with an internally capped batch schedule and a derived finite entry iteration. Section 5 states the remaining source-coverage boundaries.

13. Paper Assumption Provenance

The source map routes performative optimality/stability, update rules, sensitivity, and Theorem 3.10 carriers. It now also routes Theorem 4.3’s domain-relative model, risks, A2 witness, and data-Lipschitz condition as reusable source predicates. The map exposes the ambient model and global regularity predicates used by the population and Theorem 3.10 targets, bringing the routed surface to six paper-local and fourteen shared-library declarations. The current paper and library ledgers record the prior independent source comparisons; Section 20 identifies the changed rows that require refreshed review. Sections 5–6 state the mathematical boundaries.

14. Displayed Formula Provenance

The source map binds contraction factors, stability thresholds, counterexample losses, stable-point and optimum-distance bounds, risk gaps, and finite-sample expressions. The clarification memo records the compatible constants, Bernoulli endpoint correction, analytic domains, and Theorem 3.10 boundary.

15. Library Lift Pass

Reusable definitions include decoupled performative risk and Theorem 4.3’s domain-relative model, risks, solution concepts, A2 witness, data-Lipschitz condition, and Wasserstein sensitivity. Population contraction, explicit counterexamples, stable-point arguments, and corrected Theorem 3.10 trajectories remain paper-local.

16. DAG Audit

The dependency DAG shows the paper’s definitions and named results. Its Theorem 3.10 nodes state the proved all-round containment for dimension greater than two and the unproved printed sample/burn-in bounds. The updated PDF was compiled and visually inspected on 2026-09-06; labels, node separation, and arrowheads are legible.

17. Validation Checks

The selected source comparisons, complete tracked-paper build, final independent audit, and strict closeout pass, including Proposition 3.6(c)’s full threshold and the domain-relative Theorem 4.3 statement. The closure receipt identifies the accepted evidence.

18. Paper Definitions Checked

The source map includes performative optimality and stability, repeated risk minimization and gradient descent, distribution sensitivity, decoupled risk, finite and measure-valued Wasserstein comparison, stable points, and the RERM/RGD sampling trajectories. The domain-relative Theorem 4.3 definitions now have current independent source comparisons.

19. Named Theorem Statements Checked

20. Paper-Facing Statement Validator Ledger

The existing source-to-Spec ledger records four ordinary matches and seven matches to documented formalized targets across eleven results. The changed target descriptions for Theorems 3.5 and 3.8, Proposition 4.1, and Corollary 5.1 require refreshed comparison. Theorem 4.3 and Proposition 4.2 remain ordinary source matches; the two Theorem 3.10 results retain the limited targets described in Section 5. Correction and boundary provenance is in source-proof fidelity.

21. Source-Coverage Audit Ledger

The source map records the eleven selected result targets and their governing definitions. This selected coverage does not establish the printed Theorem 3.10 quantitative bounds, derive the population results’ ambient-global premises from the source-domain conditions, or turn Corollary 5.1’s whole-space target into a result on arbitrary closed convex Θ\Theta.